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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
13
32
2
2
8
12
3
7
3
13
11
22
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
13
32
2
2
8
12
3
7
3
13
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
23
23
56
4
4
14
21
5
12
5
23
19
39
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
23
23
56
4
4
14
21
5
12
5
23
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.193 hitrate: 0.193
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.91 0.55 0.54
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.91 0.55 0.54
Heidke skill score: -0.211 Heidke skill score: -0.211
true Heidke skill score: -0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.130
Kuipers skill score: -0.211 Kuipers skill score: -0.211
true Kuipers skill score: -0.146 true Kuipers skill score: -0.146
threat score:
0.162 0.062 0.088
threat score:
0.162 0.062 0.088
equitable threat score:
-0.006 -0.096 -0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.006 -0.096 -0.087
probability of detection:
0.545 0.091 0.125
probability of detection:
0.545 0.091 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.833 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.833 0.769
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00