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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
9
20
2
3
3
8
4
13
12
29
11
22
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
9
20
2
3
3
8
4
13
12
29
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
11
16
35
4
5
5
14
7
23
21
51
19
39
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
11
16
35
4
5
5
14
7
23
21
51
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.351 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.82 0.36 1.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.82 0.36 1.21
Heidke skill score: 0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.022 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.023 true Kuipers skill score: 0.023
threat score:
0.192 0.111 0.293
threat score:
0.192 0.111 0.293
equitable threat score:
0.052 -0.004 -0.007
equitable threat score:
0.052 -0.004 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.455 0.136 0.500
probability of detection:
0.455 0.136 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.625 0.586
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.625 0.586
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00