CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
11
25
4
7
8
19
3
5
5
13
12
21
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
11
25
4
7
8
19
3
5
5
13
12
21
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
16
19
44
7
12
14
33
5
9
9
23
21
37
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
16
19
44
7
12
14
33
5
9
9
23
21
37
42
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.08 0.90 0.54
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.08 0.90 0.54
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.019 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.020 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.156 0.212 0.156
threat score:
0.156 0.212 0.156
equitable threat score:
-0.010 0.000 -0.018
equitable threat score:
-0.010 0.000 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.417 0.333 0.208
probability of detection:
0.417 0.333 0.208
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.632 0.615
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.632 0.615
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00