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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
11
13
32
0
3
9
12
4
7
2
13
12
21
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
11
13
32
0
3
9
12
4
7
2
13
12
21
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
19
23
56
0
5
16
21
7
12
4
23
21
37
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
19
23
56
0
5
16
21
7
12
4
23
21
37
42
100

hitrate: 0.228 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.57 0.54
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.57 0.54
Heidke skill score: -0.158 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.090 true Heidke skill score: -0.090
Kuipers skill score: -0.158 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.099 true Kuipers skill score: -0.099
threat score:
0.222 0.100 0.057
threat score:
0.222 0.100 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.056 -0.118
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.056 -0.118
probability of detection:
0.667 0.143 0.083
probability of detection:
0.667 0.143 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.750 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.750 0.846
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00