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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
9
5
20
2
3
3
8
4
9
16
29
12
21
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
9
5
20
2
3
3
8
4
9
16
29
12
21
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
16
9
35
4
5
5
14
7
16
28
51
21
37
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
16
9
35
4
5
5
14
7
16
28
51
21
37
42
100

hitrate: 0.439 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.38 1.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.38 1.21
Heidke skill score: 0.158 Heidke skill score: 0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.150 true Heidke skill score: 0.150
Kuipers skill score: 0.158 Kuipers skill score: 0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.154 true Kuipers skill score: 0.154
threat score:
0.231 0.115 0.432
threat score:
0.231 0.115 0.432
equitable threat score:
0.082 0.002 0.153
equitable threat score:
0.082 0.002 0.153
probability of detection:
0.500 0.143 0.667
probability of detection:
0.500 0.143 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.625 0.448
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.625 0.448
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00