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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
7
2
20
3
2
0
5
7
10
15
32
21
19
17
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
7
2
20
3
2
0
5
7
10
15
32
21
19
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
12
4
35
5
4
0
9
12
18
26
56
37
33
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
12
4
35
5
4
0
9
12
18
26
56
37
33
30
100

hitrate: 0.491 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.95 0.26 1.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.95 0.26 1.88
Heidke skill score: 0.237 Heidke skill score: 0.237
true Heidke skill score: 0.245 true Heidke skill score: 0.245
Kuipers skill score: 0.237 Kuipers skill score: 0.237
true Kuipers skill score: 0.249 true Kuipers skill score: 0.249
threat score:
0.367 0.091 0.441
threat score:
0.367 0.091 0.441
equitable threat score:
0.160 0.016 0.223
equitable threat score:
0.160 0.016 0.223
probability of detection:
0.524 0.105 0.882
probability of detection:
0.524 0.105 0.882
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.450 0.600 0.531
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.450 0.600 0.531
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00