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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
7
8
32
1
4
7
12
3
8
2
13
21
19
17
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
7
8
32
1
4
7
12
3
8
2
13
21
19
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
12
14
56
2
7
12
21
5
14
4
23
37
33
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
12
14
56
2
7
12
21
5
14
4
23
37
33
30
100

hitrate: 0.404 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.52 0.63 0.76
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.52 0.63 0.76
Heidke skill score: 0.105 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.089 true Heidke skill score: 0.089
Kuipers skill score: 0.105 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.088 true Kuipers skill score: 0.088
threat score:
0.472 0.148 0.071
threat score:
0.472 0.148 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.215 0.000 -0.078
equitable threat score:
0.215 0.000 -0.078
probability of detection:
0.810 0.211 0.118
probability of detection:
0.810 0.211 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.469 0.667 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.469 0.667 0.846
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00