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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
5
17
5
2
5
12
10
11
7
28
21
19
17
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
5
17
5
2
5
12
10
11
7
28
21
19
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
9
30
9
4
9
21
18
19
12
49
37
33
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
9
30
9
4
9
21
18
19
12
49
37
33
30
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.81 0.63 1.65		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.81 0.63 1.65
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: -0.094
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.095 true Kuipers skill score: -0.095
threat score:
0.188 0.069 0.184		 threat score:
0.188 0.069 0.184
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.080 -0.046		 equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.080 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.286 0.105 0.412		 probability of detection:
0.286 0.105 0.412
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.647 0.833 0.750		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.647 0.833 0.750
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00