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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
10
6
29
0
2
1
3
7
8
10
25
20
20
17
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
10
6
29
0
2
1
3
7
8
10
25
20
20
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
18
11
51
0
4
2
5
12
14
18
44
35
35
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
18
11
51
0
4
2
5
12
14
18
44
35
35
30
100

hitrate: 0.439 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.45 0.15 1.47
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.45 0.15 1.47
Heidke skill score: 0.158 Heidke skill score: 0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.165 true Heidke skill score: 0.165
Kuipers skill score: 0.158 Kuipers skill score: 0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.167
threat score:
0.361 0.095 0.312
threat score:
0.361 0.095 0.312
equitable threat score:
0.109 0.047 0.104
equitable threat score:
0.109 0.047 0.104
probability of detection:
0.650 0.100 0.588
probability of detection:
0.650 0.100 0.588
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.552 0.333 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.552 0.333 0.600
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00