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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
3
17
4
2
6
12
9
11
8
28
20
20
17
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
3
17
4
2
6
12
9
11
8
28
20
20
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
5
30
7
4
11
21
16
19
14
49
35
35
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
5
30
7
4
11
21
16
19
14
49
35
35
30
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 0.60 1.65
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 0.60 1.65
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.040 true Heidke skill score: -0.040
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.040 true Kuipers skill score: -0.040
threat score:
0.233 0.067 0.216
threat score:
0.233 0.067 0.216
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.086 -0.012
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.086 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.350 0.100 0.471
probability of detection:
0.350 0.100 0.471
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.588 0.833 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.588 0.833 0.714
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00