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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
8
17
1
3
4
8
7
12
13
32
11
21
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
8
17
1
3
4
8
7
12
13
32
11
21
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
14
30
2
5
7
14
12
21
23
56
19
37
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
14
30
2
5
7
14
12
21
23
56
19
37
44
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.55 0.38 1.28
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.55 0.38 1.28
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.034 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.035 true Kuipers skill score: -0.035
threat score:
0.120 0.115 0.295
threat score:
0.120 0.115 0.295
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.002 -0.035
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.002 -0.035
probability of detection:
0.273 0.143 0.520
probability of detection:
0.273 0.143 0.520
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.625 0.594
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.625 0.594
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00