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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
4
8
0
0
1
1
10
18
20
48
11
21
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
4
8
0
0
1
1
10
18
20
48
11
21
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
7
14
0
0
2
2
18
32
35
84
19
37
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
7
14
0
0
2
2
18
32
35
84
19
37
44
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.73 0.05 1.92
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.73 0.05 1.92
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.058 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.054 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.056 0.000 0.377
threat score:
0.056 0.000 0.377
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.017 -0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.017 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.091 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.091 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 1.000 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 1.000 0.583
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00