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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
14
20
37
5
2
8
15
2
1
2
5
10
17
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
14
20
37
5
2
8
15
2
1
2
5
10
17
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
25
35
65
9
4
14
26
4
2
4
9
18
30
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
25
35
65
9
4
14
26
4
2
4
9
18
30
53
100

hitrate: 0.123 hitrate: 0.123
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.70 0.88 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.70 0.88 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.316 Heidke skill score: -0.316
true Heidke skill score: -0.152 true Heidke skill score: -0.152
Kuipers skill score: -0.316 Kuipers skill score: -0.316
true Kuipers skill score: -0.192 true Kuipers skill score: -0.192
threat score:
0.068 0.067 0.061
threat score:
0.068 0.067 0.061
equitable threat score:
-0.093 -0.097 -0.021
equitable threat score:
-0.093 -0.097 -0.021
probability of detection:
0.300 0.118 0.067
probability of detection:
0.300 0.118 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.919 0.867 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.919 0.867 0.600
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00