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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
11
20
1
5
3
9
8
4
16
28
10
17
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
11
20
1
5
3
9
8
4
16
28
10
17
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
14
19
35
2
9
5
16
14
7
28
49
18
30
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
14
19
35
2
9
5
16
14
7
28
49
18
30
53
100

hitrate: 0.386 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.53 0.93
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.53 0.93
Heidke skill score: 0.079 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.079 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.031 true Kuipers skill score: 0.031
threat score:
0.034 0.238 0.381
threat score:
0.034 0.238 0.381
equitable threat score:
-0.098 0.126 0.046
equitable threat score:
-0.098 0.126 0.046
probability of detection:
0.100 0.294 0.533
probability of detection:
0.100 0.294 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.950 0.444 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.950 0.444 0.429
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00