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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
16
22
40
5
1
2
8
3
0
6
9
10
17
30
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
16
22
40
5
1
2
8
3
0
6
9
10
17
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
28
39
70
9
2
4
14
5
0
11
16
18
30
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
28
39
70
9
2
4
14
5
0
11
16
18
30
53
100

hitrate: 0.158 hitrate: 0.158
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.47 0.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.47 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.263 Heidke skill score: -0.263
true Heidke skill score: -0.120 true Heidke skill score: -0.120
Kuipers skill score: -0.263 Kuipers skill score: -0.263
true Kuipers skill score: -0.149 true Kuipers skill score: -0.149
threat score:
0.042 0.042 0.182
threat score:
0.042 0.042 0.182
equitable threat score:
-0.122 -0.064 0.045
equitable threat score:
-0.122 -0.064 0.045
probability of detection:
0.200 0.059 0.200
probability of detection:
0.200 0.059 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.950 0.875 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.950 0.875 0.333
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00