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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
36
80
1
1
4
6
3
6
10
19
26
29
50
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
36
80
1
1
4
6
3
6
10
19
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
34
76
1
1
4
6
3
6
10
18
25
28
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
34
76
1
1
4
6
3
6
10
18
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.314 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.08 0.21 0.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.08 0.21 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.029 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.033 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: -0.029 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.037 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.262 0.029 0.169
threat score:
0.262 0.029 0.169
equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.020 0.019
equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.020 0.019
probability of detection:
0.846 0.034 0.200
probability of detection:
0.846 0.034 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.725 0.833 0.474
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.725 0.833 0.474
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00