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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
18
35
0
0
8
8
2
4
8
14
8
15
34
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
18
35
0
0
8
8
2
4
8
14
8
15
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
19
32
61
0
0
14
14
4
7
14
25
14
26
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
19
32
61
0
0
14
14
4
7
14
25
14
26
60
100

hitrate: 0.246 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.38 0.53 0.41		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.38 0.53 0.41
Heidke skill score: -0.132 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.033 true Heidke skill score: -0.033
Kuipers skill score: -0.132 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.043 true Kuipers skill score: -0.043
threat score:
0.162 0.000 0.200		 threat score:
0.162 0.000 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.101 -0.011		 equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.101 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.235		 probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.829 1.000 0.429		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.829 1.000 0.429
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00