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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
9
13
29
4
3
6
13
1
5
9
15
12
17
28
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
9
13
29
4
3
6
13
1
5
9
15
12
17
28
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
16
23
51
7
5
11
23
2
9
16
26
21
30
49
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
16
23
51
7
5
11
23
2
9
16
26
21
30
49
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.42 0.76 0.54
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.42 0.76 0.54
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.042 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.046 true Kuipers skill score: 0.046
threat score:
0.206 0.111 0.265
threat score:
0.206 0.111 0.265
equitable threat score:
0.032 -0.038 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.032 -0.038 0.061
probability of detection:
0.583 0.176 0.321
probability of detection:
0.583 0.176 0.321
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.759 0.769 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.759 0.769 0.400
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00