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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
26
23
37
86
0
0
0
0
6
6
7
19
32
29
44
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
26
23
37
86
0
0
0
0
6
6
7
19
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
22
35
82
0
0
0
0
6
6
7
18
30
28
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
22
35
82
0
0
0
0
6
6
7
18
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.314 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.69 0.00 0.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.69 0.00 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.029 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: -0.017 true Heidke skill score: -0.017
Kuipers skill score: -0.029 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: -0.017 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.283 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.283 0.000 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.003 0.000 -0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.003 0.000 -0.020
probability of detection:
0.812 0.000 0.159
probability of detection:
0.812 0.000 0.159
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.698 0.000 0.632
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.698 0.000 0.632
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00