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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
19
37
1
3
2
6
4
3
7
14
12
17
28
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
19
37
1
3
2
6
4
3
7
14
12
17
28
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
19
33
65
2
5
4
11
7
5
12
25
21
30
49
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
19
33
65
2
5
4
11
7
5
12
25
21
30
49
100

hitrate: 0.298 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.08 0.35 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.08 0.35 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.013 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.015 true Kuipers skill score: 0.015
threat score:
0.167 0.150 0.200
threat score:
0.167 0.150 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.066 0.004
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.066 0.004
probability of detection:
0.583 0.176 0.250
probability of detection:
0.583 0.176 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.811 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.811 0.500 0.500
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00