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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
11
16
2
2
4
8
9
14
10
33
14
18
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
11
16
2
2
4
8
9
14
10
33
14
18
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
19
28
4
4
7
14
16
25
18
58
25
32
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
19
28
4
4
7
14
16
25
18
58
25
32
44
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.44 1.32
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.44 1.32
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.164 true Heidke skill score: -0.164
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.161 true Kuipers skill score: -0.161
threat score:
0.111 0.083 0.208
threat score:
0.111 0.083 0.208
equitable threat score:
-0.040 -0.025 -0.133
equitable threat score:
-0.040 -0.025 -0.133
probability of detection:
0.214 0.111 0.400
probability of detection:
0.214 0.111 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.750 0.697
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.750 0.697
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00