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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
15
13
39
2
2
4
8
1
1
8
10
14
18
25
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
15
13
39
2
2
4
8
1
1
8
10
14
18
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
26
23
68
4
4
7
14
2
2
14
18
25
32
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
26
23
68
4
4
7
14
2
2
14
18
25
32
44
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.79 0.44 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.79 0.44 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.111 true Heidke skill score: 0.111
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.122 true Kuipers skill score: 0.122
threat score:
0.262 0.083 0.296
threat score:
0.262 0.083 0.296
equitable threat score:
0.044 -0.025 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.044 -0.025 0.160
probability of detection:
0.786 0.111 0.320
probability of detection:
0.786 0.111 0.320
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.718 0.750 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.718 0.750 0.200
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00