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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
7
3
6
3
12
16
9
13
38
21
17
19
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
7
3
6
3
12
16
9
13
38
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
5
12
5
11
5
21
28
16
23
67
37
30
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
5
12
5
11
5
21
28
16
23
67
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.71 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.71 2.00
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.057 true Heidke skill score: 0.057
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.057 true Kuipers skill score: 0.057
threat score:
0.077 0.261 0.295
threat score:
0.077 0.261 0.295
equitable threat score:
-0.025 0.125 0.011
equitable threat score:
-0.025 0.125 0.011
probability of detection:
0.095 0.353 0.684
probability of detection:
0.095 0.353 0.684
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.500 0.658
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.500 0.658
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00