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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
6
15
1
2
5
8
18
8
8
34
21
17
19
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
6
15
1
2
5
8
18
8
8
34
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
12
11
26
2
4
9
14
32
14
14
60
37
30
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
12
11
26
2
4
9
14
32
14
14
60
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.211
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 0.47 1.79		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 0.47 1.79
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: -0.184
true Heidke skill score: -0.192 true Heidke skill score: -0.192
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: -0.184
true Kuipers skill score: -0.191 true Kuipers skill score: -0.191
threat score:
0.059 0.087 0.178		 threat score:
0.059 0.087 0.178
equitable threat score:
-0.124 -0.019 -0.099		 equitable threat score:
-0.124 -0.019 -0.099
probability of detection:
0.095 0.118 0.421		 probability of detection:
0.095 0.118 0.421
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.750 0.765		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.750 0.765
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00