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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
26
68
3
0
1
4
14
11
9
34
38
32
36
106

contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
26
68
3
0
1
4
14
11
9
34
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
25
64
3
0
1
4
13
10
8
32
36
30
34
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
25
64
3
0
1
4
13
10
8
32
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.283 hitrate: 0.283
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.79 0.12 0.94
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.79 0.12 0.94
Heidke skill score: -0.075 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: -0.104 true Heidke skill score: -0.104
Kuipers skill score: -0.075 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: -0.101 true Kuipers skill score: -0.101
threat score:
0.247 0.000 0.148
threat score:
0.247 0.000 0.148
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.035 -0.052
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.035 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.553 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.553 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.691 1.000 0.735
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.691 1.000 0.735
samples: 106 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00