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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
12
18
47
1
4
1
6
2
1
1
4
20
17
20
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
12
18
47
1
4
1
6
2
1
1
4
20
17
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
21
32
82
2
7
2
11
4
2
2
7
35
30
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
21
32
82
2
7
2
11
4
2
2
7
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.386 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.35 0.35 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.35 0.35 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.079 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: 0.079 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.061 true Kuipers skill score: 0.061
threat score:
0.340 0.211 0.043
threat score:
0.340 0.211 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.015 0.128 -0.019
equitable threat score:
0.015 0.128 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.850 0.235 0.050
probability of detection:
0.850 0.235 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.638 0.333 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.638 0.333 0.750
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00