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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
10
35
0
2
0
2
4
6
10
20
20
17
20
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
10
35
0
2
0
2
4
6
10
20
20
17
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
16
18
61
0
4
0
4
7
11
18
35
35
30
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
16
18
61
0
4
0
4
7
11
18
35
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.491 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.12 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.12 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.237 Heidke skill score: 0.237
true Heidke skill score: 0.218 true Heidke skill score: 0.218
Kuipers skill score: 0.237 Kuipers skill score: 0.237
true Kuipers skill score: 0.214 true Kuipers skill score: 0.214
threat score:
0.410 0.118 0.333
threat score:
0.410 0.118 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.139 0.086 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.139 0.086 0.130
probability of detection:
0.800 0.118 0.500
probability of detection:
0.800 0.118 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.543 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.543 0.000 0.500
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00