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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
14
17
48
1
2
1
4
2
1
2
5
20
17
20
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
14
17
48
1
2
1
4
2
1
2
5
20
17
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
25
30
84
2
4
2
7
4
2
4
9
35
30
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
25
30
84
2
4
2
7
4
2
4
9
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.40 0.24 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.40 0.24 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.033 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.032 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.333 0.105 0.087
threat score:
0.333 0.105 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.005 0.045 0.012
equitable threat score:
0.005 0.045 0.012
probability of detection:
0.850 0.118 0.100
probability of detection:
0.850 0.118 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.646 0.500 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.646 0.500 0.600
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00