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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
15
8
39
2
1
1
4
3
5
6
14
21
21
15
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
15
8
39
2
1
1
4
3
5
6
14
21
21
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
26
14
68
4
2
2
7
5
9
11
25
37
37
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
26
14
68
4
2
2
7
5
9
11
25
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.404 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.86 0.19 0.93
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.86 0.19 0.93
Heidke skill score: 0.105 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.093 true Heidke skill score: 0.093
Kuipers skill score: 0.105 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.092 true Kuipers skill score: 0.092
threat score:
0.364 0.042 0.261
threat score:
0.364 0.042 0.261
equitable threat score:
0.055 -0.021 0.120
equitable threat score:
0.055 -0.021 0.120
probability of detection:
0.762 0.048 0.400
probability of detection:
0.762 0.048 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.590 0.750 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.590 0.750 0.571
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00