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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
12
14
31
7
3
0
10
9
6
1
16
21
21
15
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
12
14
31
7
3
0
10
9
6
1
16
21
21
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
21
25
54
12
5
0
18
16
11
2
28
37
37
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
21
25
54
12
5
0
18
16
11
2
28
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.158 hitrate: 0.158
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.48 0.48 1.07
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.48 0.48 1.07
Heidke skill score: -0.263 Heidke skill score: -0.263
true Heidke skill score: -0.274 true Heidke skill score: -0.274
Kuipers skill score: -0.263 Kuipers skill score: -0.263
true Kuipers skill score: -0.275 true Kuipers skill score: -0.275
threat score:
0.106 0.107 0.033
threat score:
0.106 0.107 0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.180 -0.028 -0.124
equitable threat score:
-0.180 -0.028 -0.124
probability of detection:
0.238 0.143 0.067
probability of detection:
0.238 0.143 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.839 0.700 0.938
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.839 0.700 0.938
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00