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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
9
15
4
3
2
9
16
13
4
33
21
21
15
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
9
15
4
3
2
9
16
13
4
33
21
21
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
16
26
7
5
4
16
28
23
7
58
37
37
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
16
26
7
5
4
16
28
23
7
58
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.140 hitrate: 0.140
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 0.43 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 0.43 2.20
Heidke skill score: -0.289 Heidke skill score: -0.289
true Heidke skill score: -0.241 true Heidke skill score: -0.241
Kuipers skill score: -0.289 Kuipers skill score: -0.289
true Kuipers skill score: -0.254 true Kuipers skill score: -0.254
threat score:
0.029 0.111 0.091
threat score:
0.029 0.111 0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.154 -0.013 -0.133
equitable threat score:
-0.154 -0.013 -0.133
probability of detection:
0.048 0.143 0.267
probability of detection:
0.048 0.143 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 0.667 0.879
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 0.667 0.879
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00