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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
12
10
32
3
1
6
10
3
5
7
15
16
18
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
12
10
32
3
1
6
10
3
5
7
15
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
21
18
56
5
2
11
18
5
9
12
26
28
32
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
21
18
56
5
2
11
18
5
9
12
26
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.56 0.65
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.56 0.65
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.005 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.005 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.263 0.037 0.226
threat score:
0.263 0.037 0.226
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.091 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.091 0.038
probability of detection:
0.625 0.056 0.304
probability of detection:
0.625 0.056 0.304
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.900 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.900 0.533
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00