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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
9
6
26
0
0
0
0
5
9
17
31
16
18
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
9
6
26
0
0
0
0
5
9
17
31
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
16
11
46
0
0
0
0
9
16
30
54
28
32
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
16
11
46
0
0
0
0
9
16
30
54
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.491 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.00 1.35
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.00 1.35
Heidke skill score: 0.237 Heidke skill score: 0.237
true Heidke skill score: 0.220 true Heidke skill score: 0.220
Kuipers skill score: 0.237 Kuipers skill score: 0.237
true Kuipers skill score: 0.218 true Kuipers skill score: 0.218
threat score:
0.355 0.000 0.459
threat score:
0.355 0.000 0.459
equitable threat score:
0.156 0.000 0.183
equitable threat score:
0.156 0.000 0.183
probability of detection:
0.688 0.000 0.739
probability of detection:
0.688 0.000 0.739
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.577 0.000 0.452
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.577 0.000 0.452
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00