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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
9
11
30
2
1
0
3
4
8
12
24
16
18
23
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
9
11
30
2
1
0
3
4
8
12
24
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
16
19
53
4
2
0
5
7
14
21
42
28
32
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
16
19
53
4
2
0
5
7
14
21
42
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.404 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.88 0.17 1.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.88 0.17 1.04
Heidke skill score: 0.105 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.104 true Heidke skill score: 0.104
Kuipers skill score: 0.105 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.105 true Kuipers skill score: 0.105
threat score:
0.278 0.050 0.343
threat score:
0.278 0.050 0.343
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.003 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.003 0.091
probability of detection:
0.625 0.056 0.522
probability of detection:
0.625 0.056 0.522
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.667 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.667 0.500
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00