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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
12
32
4
2
4
10
3
6
6
15
17
18
22
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
12
32
4
2
4
10
3
6
6
15
17
18
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
18
21
56
7
4
7
18
5
11
11
26
30
32
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
18
21
56
7
4
7
18
5
11
11
26
30
32
39
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.88 0.56 0.68
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.88 0.56 0.68
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.013 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.013 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.256 0.077 0.194
threat score:
0.256 0.077 0.194
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.051 0.008
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.051 0.008
probability of detection:
0.588 0.111 0.273
probability of detection:
0.588 0.111 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.800 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.800 0.600
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00