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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
7
15
4
4
3
11
10
9
12
31
17
18
22
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
7
15
4
4
3
11
10
9
12
31
17
18
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
12
26
7
7
5
19
18
16
21
54
30
32
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
12
26
7
7
5
19
18
16
21
54
30
32
39
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 0.61 1.41
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 0.61 1.41
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.025 true Heidke skill score: -0.025
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.024 true Kuipers skill score: -0.024
threat score:
0.103 0.160 0.293
threat score:
0.103 0.160 0.293
equitable threat score:
-0.060 0.024 0.001
equitable threat score:
-0.060 0.024 0.001
probability of detection:
0.176 0.222 0.545
probability of detection:
0.176 0.222 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.636 0.613
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.636 0.613
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00