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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
3
9
6
4
3
13
9
10
16
35
17
18
22
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
3
9
6
4
3
13
9
10
16
35
17
18
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
5
16
11
7
5
23
16
18
28
61
30
32
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
5
16
11
7
5
23
16
18
28
61
30
32
39
100

hitrate: 0.386 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 0.72 1.59		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 0.72 1.59
Heidke skill score: 0.079 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.046 true Heidke skill score: 0.046
Kuipers skill score: 0.079 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: 0.045
threat score:
0.083 0.148 0.390		 threat score:
0.083 0.148 0.390
equitable threat score:
-0.032 -0.005 0.091		 equitable threat score:
-0.032 -0.005 0.091
probability of detection:
0.118 0.222 0.727		 probability of detection:
0.118 0.222 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.692 0.543		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.692 0.543
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00