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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
11
13
32
1
5
4
10
2
6
7
15
11
22
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
11
13
32
1
5
4
10
2
6
7
15
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
19
23
56
2
9
7
18
4
11
12
26
19
39
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
19
23
56
2
9
7
18
4
11
12
26
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.351 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.91 0.45 0.62		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.91 0.45 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.090 true Heidke skill score: 0.090
Kuipers skill score: 0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.101 true Kuipers skill score: 0.101
threat score:
0.229 0.185 0.219		 threat score:
0.229 0.185 0.219
equitable threat score:
0.063 0.049 0.027		 equitable threat score:
0.063 0.049 0.027
probability of detection:
0.727 0.227 0.292		 probability of detection:
0.727 0.227 0.292
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.500 0.533		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.500 0.533
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00