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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
8
15
1
5
5
11
6
14
11
31
11
22
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
8
15
1
5
5
11
6
14
11
31
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
5
14
26
2
9
9
19
11
25
19
54
19
39
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
5
14
26
2
9
9
19
11
25
19
54
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.351 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.36 0.50 1.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.36 0.50 1.29
Heidke skill score: 0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.005 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.005 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.182 0.179 0.250
threat score:
0.182 0.179 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.058 0.032 -0.066
equitable threat score:
0.058 0.032 -0.066
probability of detection:
0.364 0.227 0.458
probability of detection:
0.364 0.227 0.458
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.545 0.645
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.545 0.645
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00