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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
10
11
30
0
4
1
5
2
8
12
22
11
22
24
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
10
11
30
0
4
1
5
2
8
12
22
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
18
19
53
0
7
2
9
4
14
21
39
19
39
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
18
19
53
0
7
2
9
4
14
21
39
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.439 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.73 0.23 0.92		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.73 0.23 0.92
Heidke skill score: 0.158 Heidke skill score: 0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.200
Kuipers skill score: 0.158 Kuipers skill score: 0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.221 true Kuipers skill score: 0.221
threat score:
0.281 0.174 0.353		 threat score:
0.281 0.174 0.353
equitable threat score:
0.122 0.098 0.111		 equitable threat score:
0.122 0.098 0.111
probability of detection:
0.818 0.182 0.500		 probability of detection:
0.818 0.182 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.200 0.455		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.200 0.455
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00