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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
21
65
0
3
0
3
9
17
11
37
31
42
32
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
21
65
0
3
0
3
9
17
11
37
31
42
32
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
20
62
0
3
0
3
9
16
10
35
30
40
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
20
62
0
3
0
3
9
16
10
35
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.343 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.10 0.07 1.16
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.10 0.07 1.16
Heidke skill score: 0.014 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.059 true Heidke skill score: 0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.014 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.063 true Kuipers skill score: 0.063
threat score:
0.297 0.071 0.190
threat score:
0.297 0.071 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.051 0.044 -0.006
equitable threat score:
0.051 0.044 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.710 0.071 0.344
probability of detection:
0.710 0.071 0.344
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.662 0.000 0.703
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.662 0.000 0.703
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00