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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
11
2
15
3
5
3
11
8
12
11
31
13
28
16
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
11
2
15
3
5
3
11
8
12
11
31
13
28
16
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
19
4
26
5
9
5
19
14
21
19
54
23
49
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
19
4
26
5
9
5
19
14
21
19
54
23
49
28
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.15 0.39 1.94
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.15 0.39 1.94
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.012 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.013 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.077 0.147 0.306
threat score:
0.077 0.147 0.306
equitable threat score:
-0.063 -0.014 0.084
equitable threat score:
-0.063 -0.014 0.084
probability of detection:
0.154 0.179 0.688
probability of detection:
0.154 0.179 0.688
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.545 0.645
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.545 0.645
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00