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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
12
2
16
5
8
3
16
6
8
11
25
13
28
16
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
12
2
16
5
8
3
16
6
8
11
25
13
28
16
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
21
4
28
9
14
5
28
11
14
19
44
23
49
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
21
4
28
9
14
5
28
11
14
19
44
23
49
28
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.23 0.57 1.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.23 0.57 1.56
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.064 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.069 true Kuipers skill score: 0.069
threat score:
0.074 0.222 0.367
threat score:
0.074 0.222 0.367
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.005 0.173
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.005 0.173
probability of detection:
0.154 0.286 0.688
probability of detection:
0.154 0.286 0.688
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.500 0.560
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.500 0.560
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00