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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
20
62
1
2
1
4
8
18
13
39
30
41
34
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
20
62
1
2
1
4
8
18
13
39
30
41
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
19
59
1
2
1
4
8
17
12
37
29
39
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
19
59
1
2
1
4
8
17
12
37
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.343 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.07 0.10 1.15
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.07 0.10 1.15
Heidke skill score: 0.014 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.056 true Heidke skill score: 0.056
Kuipers skill score: 0.014 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.059 true Kuipers skill score: 0.059
threat score:
0.296 0.047 0.217
threat score:
0.296 0.047 0.217
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.011 0.008
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.011 0.008
probability of detection:
0.700 0.049 0.382
probability of detection:
0.700 0.049 0.382
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.661 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.661 0.500 0.667
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00