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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
23
31
23
77
0
2
1
3
7
8
10
25
30
41
34
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
23
31
23
77
0
2
1
3
7
8
10
25
30
41
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
30
22
73
0
2
1
3
7
8
10
24
29
39
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
30
22
73
0
2
1
3
7
8
10
24
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.57 0.07 0.74
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.57 0.07 0.74
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.051 true Heidke skill score: 0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.054 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.274 0.048 0.204
threat score:
0.274 0.048 0.204
equitable threat score:
0.016 0.020 0.047
equitable threat score:
0.016 0.020 0.047
probability of detection:
0.767 0.049 0.294
probability of detection:
0.767 0.049 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.701 0.333 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.701 0.333 0.600
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00