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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
9
4
16
6
6
4
16
5
8
12
25
14
23
20
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
9
4
16
6
6
4
16
5
8
12
25
14
23
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
16
7
28
11
11
7
28
9
14
21
44
25
40
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
16
7
28
11
11
7
28
9
14
21
44
25
40
35
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.70 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.70 1.25
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.049 true Heidke skill score: 0.049
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.049 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.111 0.182 0.364
threat score:
0.111 0.182 0.364
equitable threat score:
-0.040 -0.017 0.133
equitable threat score:
-0.040 -0.017 0.133
probability of detection:
0.214 0.261 0.600
probability of detection:
0.214 0.261 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.625 0.520
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.625 0.520
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00