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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
33
28
26
87
0
0
1
1
4
7
6
17
37
35
33
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
33
28
26
87
0
0
1
1
4
7
6
17
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
27
25
83
0
0
1
1
4
7
6
16
35
33
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
27
25
83
0
0
1
1
4
7
6
16
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.371 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.35 0.03 0.52		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.35 0.03 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.057 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.039 true Heidke skill score: 0.039
Kuipers skill score: 0.057 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.038 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.363 0.000 0.136		 threat score:
0.363 0.000 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.039 -0.009 0.017		 equitable threat score:
0.039 -0.009 0.017
probability of detection:
0.892 0.000 0.182		 probability of detection:
0.892 0.000 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.621 1.000 0.647		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.621 1.000 0.647
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00