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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
24
24
17
65
2
2
2
6
11
9
14
34
37
35
33
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
24
24
17
65
2
2
2
6
11
9
14
34
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
23
16
62
2
2
2
6
10
9
13
32
35
33
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
23
16
62
2
2
2
6
10
9
13
32
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.381 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.76 0.17 1.03
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.76 0.17 1.03
Heidke skill score: 0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.064 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.063 true Kuipers skill score: 0.063
threat score:
0.308 0.051 0.264
threat score:
0.308 0.051 0.264
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.000 0.078
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.000 0.078
probability of detection:
0.649 0.057 0.424
probability of detection:
0.649 0.057 0.424
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.631 0.667 0.588
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.631 0.667 0.588
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00