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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
4
16
8
3
5
16
4
9
12
25
18
18
21
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
4
16
8
3
5
16
4
9
12
25
18
18
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
7
28
14
5
9
28
7
16
21
44
32
32
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
7
28
14
5
9
28
7
16
21
44
32
32
37
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 0.89 1.19
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 0.89 1.19
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.045 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.044 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.214 0.097 0.353
threat score:
0.214 0.097 0.353
equitable threat score:
0.041 -0.079 0.113
equitable threat score:
0.041 -0.079 0.113
probability of detection:
0.333 0.167 0.571
probability of detection:
0.333 0.167 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.812 0.520
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.812 0.520
samples: 57 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00