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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
24
20
19
63
2
4
2
8
10
8
16
34
36
32
37
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
24
20
19
63
2
4
2
8
10
8
16
34
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
19
18
60
2
4
2
8
10
8
15
32
34
30
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
19
18
60
2
4
2
8
10
8
15
32
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.419 hitrate: 0.419
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.25 0.92		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.25 0.92
Heidke skill score: 0.129 Heidke skill score: 0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.116 true Heidke skill score: 0.116
Kuipers skill score: 0.129 Kuipers skill score: 0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.114 true Kuipers skill score: 0.114
threat score:
0.320 0.111 0.291		 threat score:
0.320 0.111 0.291
equitable threat score:
0.045 0.047 0.093		 equitable threat score:
0.045 0.047 0.093
probability of detection:
0.667 0.125 0.432		 probability of detection:
0.667 0.125 0.432
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.619 0.500 0.529		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.619 0.500 0.529
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00